Look of the Day for 4/17: A different angle on Embiid

We fell short on our Look of the Day for Tuesday night, but we're back for blood on Wednesday night with another prop bet for the NBA Play-In Tournament. Let's target Joel Embiid, but not in the way you might expect. 

Look of the Day: Joel Embiid under 4.5 assists (+130 DraftKings)

Joel Embiid has steadily improved as a passer and playmaker throughout his career. The Philadelphia 76ers big man is averaging a career-high 5.6 assists on 9.5 potential assists per game this year, but we're expecting him to go under his season average against the Miami Heat.

Embiid has always struggled to rack up assists against Miami. In 18 career matchups against the Heat, the center is averaging just 2.6 assists per game. He's gone over 4.5 assists only one time in those 18 contests.

Obviously, some of those games are irrelevant, but Embiid has never recorded five or more assists in 13 career matchups against Bam Adebayo. There's a reason for that. A majority of Embiid's assists come when teams double him in the post, but the Heat don't send many double-teams at Embiid because Adebayo is such an effective defender. Miami likes to play him straight up and provide extra help when he gets near the rim, but once Embiid is that deep, he's putting up a shot 95 percent of the time. 

At plus money, this is our favorite prop for Wednesday's play-in tournament slate.